The Kenyan Scholar

Are we on track for an all-renewable energy future, led by wind and solar? Or are those energy sources completely inadequate for the task?

Here’s the reality.

In 2023, our "energy hungry" planet consumed 1.5 percent more fossil fuels than in 2022, with 82% of the world's energy coming from coal, oil, and natural gas, as per the most recent study on global energy by the Energy Institute. That’s merely a 2%-point decrease from 20 years ago. Oil still fuels nearly 97% of global transportation.

Contrary to headlines indicating that we are swiftly shifting away from fossil fuels, this is just not occurring. After two decades and $5 trillion in government investments in green energy, we have barely shifted the needle.

It should have been simple, right? Why is it so difficult? In one word: rocks.

To produce the same quantity of energy as we do currently from fossil fuels, we will need to increase mining by more than 1000%. This is not guesswork; it is physics.

Everything from copper and iron ore to nickel and chromium as well as zinc, cobalt, lithium, graphite, and rare-earth elements like neodymium is essential. An overwhelming number of industrial components, including motors, turbine blades, batteries, solar panels, and more, must be manufactured from these raw materials. This also demands a large amount of energy, necessitating additional mining.

According to World Bank research, "These green technologies are in fact significantly more material intensive than our current energy mix." This could be the understatement of the century.

50% to 70% of the price for manufacturing batteries and solar panels is spent on raw materials. It hasn't really mattered up to this point because solar and wind power still make up very small portions of the world's energy supply. Their role is that of an ecological cheerleader; they are not now, and probably will not be for some time, a significant player in the energy industry.

But for the purpose of argument, let's pretend we abruptly end mining. What location are these new mines going to be? For starters, consider China.

Currently, the majority of the world's essential energy materials come from that nation. Not only is the United States a relatively insignificant participant, but it also imports all 17 of its key minerals. But does the United States truly want to give China more economic and political leverage?

For 40% of its natural gas needs, Europe has rendered itself reliant on Russia. We all know how badly that turned out because of what happened after the war in Ukraine.

Surprisingly, all the minerals needed are present in places like North America. However, good luck attempting to remove them from the earth. In the United States, like in nearly every other country, there is strong resistance to, if not outright prohibitions of, mining projects.

Yes, the environmentalists and politicians who lead the green movement in praising electric automobiles are also the ones who have made it nearly hard to mine the copper and nickel needed to construct them. Make an effort to find the middle ground.

Everything up to this point has focused on meeting energy demands in the now; however, what about the future?

Our energy needs in the future will dwarf those of the present. That has always been the case throughout human history. More people and more innovations will coexist in the future.

Instead of focusing on energy production, entrepreneurs have historically prioritized investing in potential new energy consumers. Although it goes without saying, there was no need for energy to power vehicles, airplanes, medications, and computers prior to their inception.

More and more people will desire the items that others already own as their income increases. From improved healthcare to trips to automobiles. 80 for every 100 people living in the United States. About 5 automobiles per 100 people is the norm in most parts of the globe. Personal reasons account for more than 80% of all plane travel. For the year, that amounts to 2 billion barrels of oil.

Hospitals consume 250% more energy per square foot than the average commercial building. Cloud computing already accounts for double Japan's (the world's third-largest economy) electrical consumption within the global information infrastructure. On their own, the enormous data centers that make up the cloud use about ten times as much power as all ten million electric vehicles in the world.

With the help of record-breaking e-commerce boom, warehouses are becoming increasingly populated with energy-hungry robots. For example, the truck freight index in the United States has increased by almost 100% in the last 10 years to transport commodities to and from these storage facilities.

These tendencies are currently well-known. We may not know what the future holds, but we do know that fields like biotechnology, quantum computing, drones, and robotics will see unprecedented levels of innovation. Energy consumption will rise across the board. Far more.

Yes, renewables, nuclear power, and fossil fuels will all be necessary. But dream on if you believe that we could get everything from solar and wind power.